Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and […]

AM Gains Mostly Stick Around Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related headlines that prompted a sharp rally in bonds). The rest of the day was spent drifting mostly sideways. Stocks continued their surge to new all-time highs. Oil prices fell in concert with the bond rally, briefly dipping below $80/bbl.  Market

Today was a victory for mortgage rates, but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end result is the lowest average 30yr fixed rate in just over a month.  The other news isn’t bad, per se, but it is a bit confusing. 

Builder confidence fell sharply in April as rising costs and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment heading into the spring buying season. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped four points to 34 , its lowest level since September 2025. The decline marks a notable setback after modest gains in

Mortgage applications ticked higher last week, reversing recent declines as easing rates provided a modest boost to activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.8% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 10. Refinance activity led the gain, with the Refinance Index rising 5% from the previous week and now

Existing-home sales pulled back in March, reversing February’s modest gains as affordability pressures and rising mortgage rates continued to weigh on buyer activity. Sales fell 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million , slipping 1.0% below year-ago levels. “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist

The MBA’s National Advocacy Conference in DC wrapped up this week, and any time you have a gaggle of mortgage personnel in one place, talk in the hallways inevitably turned to current market conditions. For example, servicing rights have increased in value, and MSR trading multiples are in the mid 5x range for certain cohorts

Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%.  Less than an hour later, yields fell to 4.23 and MBS rose over 3/8ths of a point on a trio of headlines. The first was a detail from a proposed plan to end the war (involving

Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start This morning, more than halfway through the international trading day, bonds were on track for the narrowest trading range since February 24th. The low volatility didn’t last. Sellers surfaced in response to several war-related headlines. Bond yields followed oil prices higher from 9am through 1pm ET.  That said,

On average, today’s top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday’s. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue waiting for bigger developments in the Iran war. At the moment, the market is in a sort of limbo as time remains on the 2-week ceasefire. In the meantime, there’s