Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too complicated here: if sentiment is trending in favor of peace, bonds have rallied. If sentiment is deteriorating, bonds have sold off. There was a […]

Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed Monday’s trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-watching, as has been the case on so many days since the start of the Iran war. Today was more active than normal in that regard. The earliest headlines (as covered in the AM commentary) were helpful until they weren’t. Subsequent

Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they’ve edged slightly higher yet again with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.68% versus 6.65% on Friday. This wasn’t necessarily destined to be the case today. In fact the day began with the

For those of you who like maps, here’s one of the states’ closing costs. And here’s something for companies who have training programs: New hires should check out the Business Glossary from MISMO. It covers business processes, events, calculations, documents, forms, regulations, AI terminology, and more. LOs of various ages tell me that people in

Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading began. Yields were still slightly higher at 7:30am but moved lower after headlines cited rumors that the U.S. agreed to lift Iran’s oil sanctions. Subsequent headlines cited a revised counter-proposal from Iran in

Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of the trading day. The key market movers were in place at the start of domestic trading. From an analytical standpoint, the morning commentary adequately recaps the day’s bond market motivations. Yields continued drifting higher throughout the session as investors

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data during the October 2025 government funding lapse. The issue stemmed from the CPI’s housing survey, which was unable to collect rent data during the shutdown period. With no fresh survey results available, BLS

Refinance activity continued to recover in the first quarter of 2026, but mortgage servicers retained a smaller share of borrowers despite the stronger lending environment, according to the latest ICE Mortgage Monitor. ICE estimated that roughly 585,000 first-lien refinances totaling $242 billion closed during the quarter, up from a revised 550,000 loans and $234 billion

Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided modest support for buyers. Sales increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million , matching the pace seen one year ago. “Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home

Mortgage applications increased modestly last week, as stronger purchase activity more than offset a slight decline in refinances. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.7% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 8. The gain was driven entirely by home purchase demand, which continued to show