Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night’s Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of […]

On any given Thursday, there’s a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that’s fine, but it’s critical to understand the methodology. Whether it’s MBA (reported yesterday) or

“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but

Things don’t always happen like you’d expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night’s Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were “nearly complete.” Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised

Surprisingly Light Volatility Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we

Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the slightly bigger picture, the market is trading with some sense of hope of a finite timeline for the war. Today, that meant a moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields (aka “rates”). Bonds

Mortgage applications fell  for the third consecutive week amid an increasingly volatile rate environment. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 27. The Refinance Index fell 17% from the previous week, but remains 33% higher than the same week one year ago.

Time flies, Apple turns 50 today, the first quarter is in the books, and here in Northern Nevada, like everywhere, lenders are watching trends and technology. There are all kinds of lists out there, but for those who prefer the CFPB’s data, there’s HMDA Market Share Dashboards for Origination Statistics. In terms of technology, there’s

Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning’s data. Both ADP and Retail Sales were stronger than expected although it should be noted that Retail Sales is for the month of February in this

Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid–sometimes puzzling–gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains