Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and made additional gains in concert with lower oil prices during the domestic session. Notably, the gains met resistance at 4.42%–a resistance level that’s been on our radar since the last bounce a few weeks ago. Technical levels certainly don’t […]

Today’s top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You’d have to go back to May 14th’s reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There’s still some risk that the deal

European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn’t trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets.  Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious,

Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate

Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point,

The bad news: mortgage rates didn’t fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly

This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, “I rob banks because that’s where the money is.” Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the

Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a “done deal” from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have

Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran’s foreign minister said

Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday’s levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That’s just 0.02% higher than May