evan@evanhitch.com

This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, “I rob banks because that’s where the money is.” Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the […]

Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a “done deal” from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have

Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran’s foreign minister said

Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday’s levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That’s just 0.02% higher than May

Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led

Existing-home sales picked up in May, rising to their highest level since December as improving affordability and steady household income gains continued to support demand. Sales increased 3.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million , and were also 3.2% higher than a year ago. “More Americans are on the move,”

Every time I use my credit card at the supermarket it can impact my credit score which were invented in 1958. What might be the credit score of the United States with its $1.78 trillion deficit in 2025? Gas stations and supermarkets are two daily places where we see inflation. Trader Joes, with its 630+

Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran’s Mehr news agency detailing some specifics of the peace deal, including the U.S. withdrawing forces from the area. Bonds then began selling as various push-back headlines popped up. Deal not completely confirmed. No location determined. Deal still under review.

Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement This morning’s commentary noted Trump comments regarding planned air strikes for today. Bonds reacted, but maintained some skepticism. That proved to be a good instinct. At roughly 1:30pm, Trump said the air strikes were cancelled and that all parties had agreed on a deal, and that a

Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday’s latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning’s econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing