evan@evanhitch.com

How do you go about trying to run your company’s AI efforts without knowing the rules? Testing suggests Google’s AI overviews tells millions of lies per hour. Colorado rewrote its landmark AI law: “Unpacking SB 26-189 and what it means for businesses” described by Ballard Spahr. AI, recapture, and capital markets were one of the […]

A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning’s weakness and the same theme continued in the overnight session. 8:30am econ data represented a modest risk of volatility, but with Jobless Claims slightly higher and Retail Sales right on target, there was almost no detectable trading response.

MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data There’s no question that this morning’s PPI data hit the bond market. The volume spike was easily higher than that seen with yesterday’s CPI and the market movement left nothing to the imagination. In the big picture, a few bps of weakness in bond yields isn’t

Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They’re just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-week highs.  Whereas yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn’t have an obviously negative impact on rates, today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) did. Both are big inflation reports. CPI is typically much more

The April FOMC Meeting concluded with the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged, and it was the last under Jerome Powell’s chairmanship. Chair Powell is the first Fed Chairman to step down and remain on the Board since 1948 due to a) the Federal investigation regarding the cost of renovating the Fed’s Headquarters, and b) he

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionally, it swings for the fences. Today’s release is a clear example with the monthly headline coming in at 1.5 vs 0.5 forecast. In annual terms, headline inflation is a

Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions Because CPI came out slightly higher today and because of its status as a bigger potential market mover, many rate watchers will assume that’s the reason 10yr yields closed at their highest level since last July. But bond yields were actually lower in the

When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender by March 27th. Rates moved more than 0.30% lower by mid April as peace prospect improved.  The third phase of rate movement began in late April and has

If you’re hoping that the summer is going to bring a trend of purchase market prosperity, I hope you’re right but there are indications otherwise. Rocket Companies’ CEO reported its highest profit in four years, but CEO Varun Krishna told investors that the company’s real-time data shows the spring homebuying season is not delivering the

This morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ways after the data, but after 20 minutes, yields were actually LOWER by a hair. What gives? We know traders are trading the