evan@evanhitch.com

Around the country, originators seem less focused on the housing bill signing ceremony postponement than on “opportunity.” There are opportunities, but not for every LO. There is the opportunity (and goal) of senior management to make their company immune from economic and world political turmoil. There is the opportunity to anchor the business to things […]

The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it’s more thorough and has stronger implications for Fed policy. Traders were apparently braced for today’s number to be a bit hotter. Bonds rallied moderately after core monthly PCE came in as-expected at

What’s Up With Today’s Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with the S&P up 20% as recently at June 16th. AI-adjacent stocks were up over 50%. Bonds lost ground over the same time. That means the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio targets were thrown way out of whack, at times approaching

Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading–likely a result of large-scale quarter-end rebalancing among the largest money managers (i.e. adjusting balance of stocks vs bonds in investment portfolios). Excess demand for bonds = lower rates, all else equal. It also hasn’t hurt that oil prices continue

“Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet.” It’s 107 F here in Las Vegas. Some would say, “It’s summer, what do you expect?” (No one expected 40 people to die in France trying to escape the heat.) Lenders and servicers are wondering, if push comes to shove about A/C

Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that’s the reason that 10yr yields were almost 7bps lower at 9am. But more than half of the oil rally was over before Treasuries began rallying. There was an obvious and uncommonly large volume spike

Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowest for any day in weeks and the lowest for a Tuesday in several months. The economic calendar was effectively empty and news/headlines had no discernible impact. There was token improvement in the AM hours but that merely

Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don’t always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our

Yesterday I published a link to Pennymac Policy Pulse, a newsletter tracking key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. The link went to an old version; above is the link to the most current. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Equifax, a global

Yesterday’s most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid-morning stock selling failed to benefit bonds, but that’s far from a regular correlation these days. In fact, the stock/bond correlation is often reversed when the market is adjusting Fed rate expectations.