evan@evanhitch.com

What’s Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.? On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil prices were down, and especially if other bond markets were rallying, U.S. bonds were probably rallying too.  Today was the opposite and there are no glaringly obvious reasons. It’s the sort of trading session where […]

Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday’s levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn’t a big range in the bigger picture, but it does leave rates near 10-month highs. The move is also a bit counterintuitive given developments in other markets and typical correlations.

Pennymac has released the latest edition of its Pennymac Policy Pulse, a newsletter tracking key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. When national or state-level organizations engage in advocacy, they don’t visit the NAR or home builders or large title companies. They visit state legislators, Congress, or federal regulators. It

European bond yields surged higher on Friday in response to political uncertainty in the U.K., among other things (ongoing global reaction to Fed day and U.S./Iran peace deal status, etc). Treasury yields were set to open higher in the overnight session as a result. All of the above is logical and fairly boring. What’s interesting

Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. Considering the sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, the week had the potential to end on an uncomfortably volatile note. Instead, bonds pushed back nicely in the other direction–even though MBS didn’t

Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed’s revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year. Because the Fed Funds Rate governs ultra-short-term transactions (24hrs or less), it has the biggest impact on the shortest-term debt and a diminishing impact on longer term debt. While the typical mortgage

Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rates moved around in response to fresh inflation data and shifting geopolitical headlines. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.8% decline in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 12. Refinance activity accounted for much of the slowdown. The Refinance Index

Builder sentiment slipped again in June as elevated mortgage rates, higher material costs and ongoing affordability pressures continued to weigh on the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell two points to 35 , marking the 14th straight month the index has remained below 40. The latest

Lots of people who bought cars during the pandemic are deeply underwater on those vehicles, meaning the amount they owe is considerably higher than the actual value of the vehicle. Among car buyers who traded in a car to buy a new one, 30 percent had negative equity on their trade-in, owing an average of

Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job digesting the post-Warsh trade, quarantining most of the damage to the shortest end of the yield curve and buying the longer end (i.e. 10yr rallied back almost completely