evan@evanhitch.com

Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower There’s no sense in overcomplicating today’s trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part […]

With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept the friendly trend intact with some help from Trump comments that suggested a limited timeline for the war. That said, the rally was more of

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Existing-home sales rebounded modestly in February, recovering some ground after January’s sharp pullback, while improving affordability and slowly expanding inventory helped support buyer activity.Sales rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million .  “Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The group’s Housing Affordability Index

Mortgage application activity continued to move higher last week, though the pace slowed considerably as financial markets turned volatile and mortgage rates moved back up from their recent lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 6. This week it was purchase

March hasn’t been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today–the highest since September 4th, 2025.  While that’s certainly not the fastest jump we’ve seen, it’s the worst 3-day stretch since early April,

Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that’s not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position

There’s a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that’s especially true of inflation reports like this morning’s PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE having an impact, but the small amount of help for bonds came from a big miss in core retail

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Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched higher by an amount typically seen when the market is reacting to big, breaking news.  But there wasn’t any of that sort of news on tap today–just downbeat updates that reinforced a longer timeline