Real Estate

Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They’re the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thinks today’s core monthly CPI of 0.2 means that prices are lower than last month when the core was 0.4. While it’s a decent monthly number and lower than […]

“Rob, everyone knows that the GSEs (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) don’t use credit scores for loan approval. They use it for pricing. The GSEs have created their own scoring system and it’s just the investors that utilize the score.” True dat. It takes a while to test the impact of credit scores on defaults,

Bonds End at Strongest Levels Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today’s momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out

“Rob, have you heard that retail and DTC lenders have stepped up their training and monitoring of loan officers?” Absolutely. The same granular examination that is applied to borrowers is being applied to LOs, and not only with credit checks and background searches. Originators are expensive, as are leads, and the analysis of LO performance

For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let’s hope we don’t repeat yesterday’s performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today’s overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that

The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today’s level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The

Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not

Remember when talk of a “re-IPO” of Freddie and Fannie dominated residential lending news? That has certainly quieted, Pulte’s attentions are diverted, and you can certainly buy stock in them now: share prices for both are down about 30 percent this year so maybe they’re a bargain. For those new to the biz, the FHFA

Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven’t recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a

Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It’s not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn’t raging (or at the