evan@evanhitch.com

Short version: The Pending Home Sales Index remains in the same low, narrow, sideways range that’s been intact for 3 years. The good news is that there’s been a reliable floor. The bad news is that the top of the range lines up with the historic lows seen in 2010 (April 2020 notwithstanding).  Longer version: […]

Mortgage applications surged last week, posting a strong rebound as declining rates and improving market sentiment drove broad-based gains. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 7.9% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 17. Both refinance and purchase activity contributed to the increase, with the Refinance Index rising 6% from

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Markets were largely flat overnight but volatility picked up just after 7am ET after headlines suggested US/Iran negotiations could resume as early as today. That was good for almost a $4 drop in oil and a 3bp drop in 10yr yields. Roughly half of that improvement was erased just over an hour later when additional

Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality It’s not exactly a new problem, but the issue of incorrect or misconstrued headlines is growing larger as the Iran war persists. It makes sense considering the current lull in both military and diplomatic developments. People who write and profit from breaking newswires are eager to cash in

Thursday saw a continuation of the recent trend of very low volatility for mortgage rates. The average lender’s top-tier 30yr fixed rates were perfectly unchanged from yesterday and in the same narrow range as the past 7 business days (6.29-6.33%).  Despite the uneventful outcome, there was some underlying market volatility mid-day following a series of

After over 40 years in this industry and capital markets, I’ve learned that the best conversations are… with people. For example, a flyer could have been sent out yesterday instead of having a press conference to cover the VantageScore & FICO 10T news, but they chose to talk about it rather than tweet it. People!

Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before the domestic session began. Part of that recovery occurred after headlines said US/Iran negotiations could make a breakthrough according to an Iranian diplomatic source. Social media quickly dubbed the news as “fake,”

Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely Heading into last night’s ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the market would at least have something to provide a directional cue to break the recent range-bound monotony. Instead, not only was the ceasefire extended, but the new deadline is explicitly TBD. This makes the expiration of range-bound monotony similarly uncertain.

Rates remain focused on oil prices and war-related developments. With yesterday’s ceasefire extension and today’s ambiguity over the time frame of that extension, rates are in a distinct holding pattern until the next phase of escalation/de-escalation comes into better focus. For now, the market is generally betting on de-escalation as seen in stocks being near