evan@evanhitch.com

War Protest: Bond Market Edition There’s no quicker way to classify the movement we’ve seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran–not because it’s a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not great. There weren’t […]

Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Home equity lending is having a moment. The challenge for many lenders? The process behind it still looks like 2015: manual workflows, vendor emails, and too much operational juggling. FirstClose is hosting a 30-minute webinar on March 19 at 1 PM CT that examines how lenders are

The bond market doesn’t look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it’s not oil, it’s fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, or a host of other inflationary knock-on effects that bode ill for the fixed income sector. Yes, the implied economic fallout would help offset the inflationary impulses,

Mortgage rates moved higher on Wednesday despite only a modest increase in oil prices. The latter is currently a part of any conversation about interest rates as higher energy costs have fueled inflation expectations. Higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. But rates take other cues, or course. One key consideration is that of

General Selling Spree Continues It hasn’t exactly been perfectly linear, but the month of March has generally been a one-way trade for the bond market. In less than 2 weeks, 10yr yields are up from 3.95 to 4.22+ without any provocation from econ data. Today was another example as CPI came in right in line

Technology is a two-edged sword. Have you ever heard of “surveillance pricing?” “Big brother” knows a lot about you. Ridesharing companies like Uber, for instance, can charge users more when they have lower battery life on their phone. “Democrats in Pennsylvania have introduced a bill that would stop retailers from changing the price of essential

There was a very high bar for today’s CPI to cause any serious market reaction due to all the new inflationary impulses that may be created by record volatility in energy markets that hasn’t yet made it into the official data. In other words, CPI is a time capsule for a bygone era and the

Today’s mortgage rates are lower when compared to yesterday’s average prior to 4pm ET. Later in the afternoon, multiple lenders announced improvements as the bond market rallied in response to geopolitical headlines. If we use those later, lower rates as a baseline, today’s average is roughly unchanged. There were no major economic reports today–not that

Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter? Days like today are a problem for a “set it and forget it” mentality when it comes to energy prices and the bond market. On many occasions since the beginning of last week, the correlation between oil prices and bond yields has been plain

One major milestone in anyone’s market-watching journey is when they learn that “the close” (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different things to different people. If we consider electronic futures trading or cash trading in overseas markets, bonds are only really closed for 2 hours a day anyway.  But the market needs a standardized