evan@evanhitch.com

In-Range PM Weakness Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market.  Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of […]

It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are “in the 5s,” but at 6.00%, today’s MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yesterday’s multi-year low.  For all practical purposes, this means the average borrower will see almost exactly the same rates as yesterday.  In many cases, the

It is no secret that Congress and regulators have trouble keeping up with technology. But is an AI “conversation” with a borrower any different than a questionnaire given to that same borrower? Will the line be drawn at RESPA items? Can regulators audit transcripts of AI “conversations” without court orders? (One way to have the

Some days, there’s a lot to say about what’s going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading ranges, technicals, and the asset allocation trade (buy stocks / sell bonds, and vice versa). Incidentally, those default explanations continue to hold some water with 10yr yields

Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the bigger picture, today’s levels are right in line with the best we’ve seen in more than 3 years. More importantly, mortgage rates are verifiably at the best levels in more than 3 years. There was

The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years. With rates holding perfectly steady today, this is the 3rd day that matches that multi-year low. In one important way, the past 2 days represent a bigger

At the Optimal Blue Summit going on now, sessions range from AI to loan officer tools to market strategy, product unveilings built to transform pricing, trading, and profitability. Will AI help? A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that among 6,000 CEOs, chief financial officers, and other executives from

Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably.  Why “probably?” Because the theme in question (risk aversion, or what we sometimes refer to as the “stock lever”) oftentimes makes it hard to distinguish between correlation and causality. All we know

General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continued to improve throughout. The first rally followed the 8:20am CME open–a common time of day to see a bit of extra momentum and volume. The next leg of the rally played out in the 10am hour which is