evan@evanhitch.com

That Escalated Quickly It would be easy to check in on the bond market at some point on Thursday afternoon and conclude there’d been precipitous escalation in the Iran war or some other big new development putting pressure on bonds (10yr yields up almost 10bps to 4.42+ and MBS down more than 5/8ths). But today’s […]

After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the broader market reaction to the Iran war which has caused significant and almost exclusive upward movement in interest rates for the entire month of March. Average 30yr fixed rates have

What’s new out there? Well, United Airlines is talking about having couches in the air. There’s always something new in compliance, and there are firms that specialize in it including Feewise, Truework, Asurity, RiskExec, TENA, ACES Quality Management, Firstline Compliance, and LicensingStore.com listed in the Marketplace. There’s always something new impacting mortgage rates. “Rob, I

Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently, Iran war de-escalation sentiment is increasingly drying up, thus causing higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and lower stock prices. Additionally, the closer we get to

Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why? Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen since the start of the Iran war. It was among the narrowest trading ranges of any single day in March, especially during domestic trading hours. This is somewhat surprising considering the preponderance of contradictory newswires and headlines concerning the state of

The past 24 hours have seen multiple news stories with seemingly contradictory updates regarding the state of the Iran war. There’s a ceasefire. There’s no ceasefire. There’s negotiation. There’s no negotiation, etc. As far as the rate market is concerned, the most important development has been the general appearance of a shift toward diplomacy and

Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders A restaurant can seem like the picture of efficiency…until the kitchen falls behind. Guests are seated, orders are taken, and everything appears to move seamlessly. But when what happens up front is not fully connected to what is happening behind the scenes, delays build quickly, and the

There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon). Yesterday’s developments (Trump comments on the war being “won” and the 30-day ceasefire news from Israel) are being taken more seriously by markets or at least seriously enough

Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile Tuesday was notable for financial markets’ attempts to trade the Iran war due to the conspicuous juxtaposition of newswires that spoke to opposing developments. Around 1pm ET, troop deployment news sent yields to the highs of the day. A little over an hour later, the newswires gave

March 2026 continues to be an unpleasant month for mortgage rates–a fact almost exclusively due to the Iran war. Even if the war were to end today, there’s been sufficient disruption to infrastructure and a big enough initial spike in energy prices to create what economists refer to as “second round effects.” In simpler terms,