evan@evanhitch.com

Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. Then at 7:04am, newswires indicated “talks” between the US and Iran, and a 5 day ceasefire of sorts. Yields and oil plunged instantly. Stocks rallied. The 10yr dipped as […]

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NOTE: the rates discussed in this article are from MBA’s weekly survey and pertain to last week.  This week’s rates have already moved significantly higher according to our daily data. Mortgage application activity fell sharply last week as rising rates weighed on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.9% on a

New home sales took a notable step back in January, reversing much of the prior month’s strength and highlighting the volatility that often defines this data series. The Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 , down sharply from December’s 712,000 and 11.3% lower than January 2025. For-sale inventory moved slightly higher

After hitting 5.99% as recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the average lender today–the highest they’ve been since September 3rd, 2025.  The entire month of March has been painful for many corners of the financial market and mortgage rates are not immune. The Iran war is

Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode Around here, “reprice” typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mortgage lenders, but infrequently, a big picture repricing occurs in the bond market. That’s what’s going on in March and especially over the last 2.5 days. Wednesday’s Fed comments and Thursday’s ECB/BOE comments confirmed that there’s a floor under

Builder confidence ticked slightly higher in March according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), though sentiment remains subdued as affordability concerns continue to weigh on the single-family market. The headline index rose one point to 38 , following a small upward revision to February’s reading. While the increase

In the space of 2 days, central banks have completely stolen the spotlight from energy prices, but they have relied on energy prices to do so. More simply put, markets had been following oil prices until this week’s central bank announcements. At that point, central banks cited energy prices as a reason for bigger upside

Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil Bonds took a break from their lock-step tango with oil prices for most of today’s session instead focusing on European Central Bank (ECB) policy news. Key considerations included a sharply higher inflation forecast, warnings of additional upside risks, and a repricing of rate hike (not cut)

At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the “10yr vs oil price” chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy price spiral. But the correlation is spotty at times and today is one of the starkest examples. Oil is essentially flat while bonds surged to higher yields