Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains Bonds rallied sharply overnight–adding onto an already decent rally yesterday afternoon that took 10yr yields from 4.38% to 4.23% in less than 24 hours. Now at Wednesday’s close, we’re back to unchanged levels near 4.30%. The move follows a similar correction seen in longer-term oil futures and, in […]
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It’s a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to the bond market (bonds dictate rates) has been increasingly wiped out during domestic hours. If we measure the reversal versus yesterday’s closing levels at 5pm ET, the reversal is
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U.S. population growth slowed sharply between July 2024 and July 2025, rising just 1.8 million people (0.5 percent) to 341.8 million, the weakest growth since the early pandemic. This was driven primarily by a steep 54 percent drop in net international migration from 2.7 million to 1.3 million (the result of ICE?), while births and
The wheels were already in motion by the time yesterday’s recap came out, and participants in the MBS Live chat room were already high-fiving as we watched overnight price movement yesterday evening (and also hoping there wouldn’t be some counterintuitive head fake). As the domestic session gets underway, things are proceeding very logically with bonds
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Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for the Iran war due to deadline for Iran to accept Trump’s terms or face major escalation. If the escalation was even remotely similar to Trump’s threats, it would all but preclude a quick end to the war
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In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April’s mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose a substantial 0.65% by March 27th. In the first five business days of April, they’ve held inside a range of just 0.04%. Today did nothing
Mortgage Rates Little-Changed But Volatility Could Return Quickly Read More »
Artificial intelligence is all the rage in conferences and webinars, and today’s Advisory Angle at 2PM ET, powered by STRATMOR Group. Sue Woodard and Garth Graham break down the biggest takeaways from ICE Experience 2026 and what they mean for lenders right now. The discussion focuses on borrower expectations, AI adoption, and how leading organizations
Tonight brings 8pm ET deadline for Iran’s response to U.S. demands (opening shipping channels among other things). If there’s no response, Trump has threatened to attack critical infrastructure like bridges, power plants, etc.–a major escalation that would all but guarantee a much longer run of high oil prices (and all that goes with it). Reports
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Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it way as well have been. Volume certainly acted the part, which is no surprise considering overseas holiday closures. Headlines and data had a limited impact, at best. In general the market is waiting to see what happens
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This year, “Bring a Kid to Work Day” is April 23. The name seems to have shifted: I remember “Bring Your Child to Work Day.” The population of the United States also shifts, something that lenders and originators are very aware of in the primary markets, and should be aware of in the secondary markets.