evan@evanhitch.com

Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of the trading day. The key market movers were in place at the start of domestic trading. From an analytical standpoint, the morning commentary adequately recaps the day’s bond market motivations. Yields continued drifting higher throughout the session as investors […]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data during the October 2025 government funding lapse. The issue stemmed from the CPI’s housing survey, which was unable to collect rent data during the shutdown period. With no fresh survey results available, BLS

Refinance activity continued to recover in the first quarter of 2026, but mortgage servicers retained a smaller share of borrowers despite the stronger lending environment, according to the latest ICE Mortgage Monitor. ICE estimated that roughly 585,000 first-lien refinances totaling $242 billion closed during the quarter, up from a revised 550,000 loans and $234 billion

Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided modest support for buyers. Sales increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million , matching the pace seen one year ago. “Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home

Mortgage applications increased modestly last week, as stronger purchase activity more than offset a slight decline in refinances. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.7% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 8. The gain was driven entirely by home purchase demand, which continued to show

Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today

As the legal and proxy battles are waged among Two Harbors, UWM, and CrossCountry, today I head to New York for the MBA’s Secondary & Capital Markets Conference. John Wooden said, “Failing to prepare is preparing to fail” and across the land, over a thousand people are avoiding failure by preparing, lining up sessions, meetings,

Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit over the past 2 days. But talks wrapped up in the overnight session with little to show for it. There was actually very little notable discussion about the war. Both

Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon The day began with promise, but devolved into yet another disappointment. After being almost a quarter point higher at 10am, MBS slid to an eighth point loss by the close. 10yr yields were as low as 4.44% early but were as high as 4.48% in the final

May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen that volatility play out in favor of higher rates, today was thankfully the opposite.  Yesterday’s latest levels left the average lender at 6 week highs with