After over 40 years in this industry and capital markets, I’ve learned that the best conversations are… with people. For example, a flyer could have been sent out yesterday instead of having a press conference to cover the VantageScore & FICO 10T news, but they chose to talk about it rather than tweet it. People! […]
Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before the domestic session began. Part of that recovery occurred after headlines said US/Iran negotiations could make a breakthrough according to an Iranian diplomatic source. Social media quickly dubbed the news as “fake,”
Fake Headlines Moving Markets? Read More »
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely Heading into last night’s ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the market would at least have something to provide a directional cue to break the recent range-bound monotony. Instead, not only was the ceasefire extended, but the new deadline is explicitly TBD. This makes the expiration of range-bound monotony similarly uncertain.
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely Read More »
Rates remain focused on oil prices and war-related developments. With yesterday’s ceasefire extension and today’s ambiguity over the time frame of that extension, rates are in a distinct holding pattern until the next phase of escalation/de-escalation comes into better focus. For now, the market is generally betting on de-escalation as seen in stocks being near
Mortgage Rates Maintaining a Tight Range Amid War-Related Uncertainty Read More »
Today we have a press conference with HUD Secretary Scott Turner and U.S. Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte announcing “a significant development in the U.S. housing finance system” at 12:45PM ET. Rumors run the gamut from “operationalizing” VantageScore to moving control of the FHA & VA programs under Pulte and the FHFA. Meanwhile, the capital
As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night’s ceasefire deadline has come and gone with surprisingly little fanfare. Yes, the ceasefire was technically extended, but the more relevant point is that oil prices have traded inside a 4 dollar range
Hurrying Up And Waiting Read More »
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among these was a report that Iran had not confirmed its intent to participate. Despite the seemingly significant consequences, bonds only rose about 2bps in terms
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses Read More »
Technically and officially, today’s average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is the highest since last Monday. The catch is that there hasn’t been much movement since then with the overall range being limited to 0.04%. Today’s jump was the largest upward movement during that time. There was some upward pressure on rates from stronger
Highest Rates in a Week But There’s a Catch Read More »
Wholesale and Correspondent Product and Corporate News Homebridge Financial Services, Inc., one of the nation’s largest privately held non-bank mortgage lenders, has officially signed an agreement to merge with an affiliate of Saluda Grade, a premier independent alternative investment firm (founded in 2019 with approximately $4.4 billion in assets under management). This powerful partnership marks
Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality had other ideas… weird ones. After months and months without any major reaction, this morning’s weekly ADP employment finally made its presence felt, even if only by the smallest of
Barely Weaker After Weekly ADP Data (Not Retail Sales) Read More »