evan@evanhitch.com

Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. Considering the sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, the week had the potential to end on an uncomfortably volatile note. Instead, bonds pushed back nicely in the other direction–even though MBS didn’t […]

Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job digesting the post-Warsh trade, quarantining most of the damage to the shortest end of the yield curve and buying the longer end (i.e. 10yr rallied back almost completely

Lots of people who bought cars during the pandemic are deeply underwater on those vehicles, meaning the amount they owe is considerably higher than the actual value of the vehicle. Among car buyers who traded in a car to buy a new one, 30 percent had negative equity on their trade-in, owing an average of

Builder sentiment slipped again in June as elevated mortgage rates, higher material costs and ongoing affordability pressures continued to weigh on the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell two points to 35 , marking the 14th straight month the index has remained below 40. The latest

Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rates moved around in response to fresh inflation data and shifting geopolitical headlines. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.8% decline in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 12. Refinance activity accounted for much of the slowdown. The Refinance Index

Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed’s revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year. Because the Fed Funds Rate governs ultra-short-term transactions (24hrs or less), it has the biggest impact on the shortest-term debt and a diminishing impact on longer term debt. While the typical mortgage

Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically has several components: the announcement itself, the summary of economic projections (SEP), and the press conference.  Within the SEP, there is the dot plot showing each Fed member’s assumptions about where the Fed Funds

Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes Ironically, one of Warsh’s comments in today’s press conference was that market movement is the most important source of information for the Fed. At the same time, the market was effectively saying that it was also fond of hearing what was on the Fed’s mind, and

Here in Honolulu, as it is in places like Florida and New York, the condo market and HOA fees are of paramount importance, as are the affordability impact of special assessments. Even though the inventory of houses for sale has steadily increased in many areas, some people want more. One idea being bantered about is

So far today, we’ve seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn’t final and could go back to dropping bombs) and a Retail Sales report that speaks to ongoing economic expansion at a faster-than-expected pace. Both of those things argue for something other