evan@evanhitch.com

Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely Heading into last night’s ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the market would at least have something to provide a directional cue to break the recent range-bound monotony. Instead, not only was the ceasefire extended, but the new deadline is explicitly TBD. This makes the expiration of range-bound monotony similarly uncertain. […]

Rates remain focused on oil prices and war-related developments. With yesterday’s ceasefire extension and today’s ambiguity over the time frame of that extension, rates are in a distinct holding pattern until the next phase of escalation/de-escalation comes into better focus. For now, the market is generally betting on de-escalation as seen in stocks being near

Today we have a press conference with HUD Secretary Scott Turner and U.S. Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte announcing “a significant development in the U.S. housing finance system” at 12:45PM ET. Rumors run the gamut from “operationalizing” VantageScore to moving control of the FHA & VA programs under Pulte and the FHFA. Meanwhile, the capital

As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night’s ceasefire deadline has come and gone with surprisingly little fanfare. Yes, the ceasefire was technically extended, but the more relevant point is that oil prices have traded inside a 4 dollar range

Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among these was a report that Iran had not confirmed its intent to participate. Despite the seemingly significant consequences, bonds only rose about 2bps in terms

Technically and officially, today’s average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is the highest since last Monday. The catch is that there hasn’t been much movement since then with the overall range being limited to 0.04%.  Today’s jump was the largest upward movement during that time. There was some upward pressure on rates from stronger

Wholesale and Correspondent Product and Corporate News Homebridge Financial Services, Inc., one of the nation’s largest privately held non-bank mortgage lenders, has officially signed an agreement to merge with an affiliate of Saluda Grade, a premier independent alternative investment firm (founded in 2019 with approximately $4.4 billion in assets under management). This powerful partnership marks

Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality had other ideas… weird ones. After months and months without any major reaction, this morning’s weekly ADP employment finally made its presence felt, even if only by the smallest of

War in the Middle East made oil prices go up, higher oil prices hurt world economies and stock markets because prices and inflation go up, and higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. At least, that’s the way it usually works, as does the opposite. Last week stock markets surged as pivotal geopolitical development reshaped

Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and