How Technical Do You Want to Be? There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market movement, but the simplest involve trendlines and level lines. Yield movement has largely held inside the same high/low trendlines since October 2025, so that’s a useful trend to keep tabs on the big picture. On a separate […]
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If you’re just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over a year with our index moving up to 6.85%. As has been and continues to be the case, rate momentum has been strongly correlated with oil/gas
Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From Long-Term Highs Read More »
New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month’s decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continued to weigh on demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000
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Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as stronger home purchase demand offset a modest decline in refinancing, even with borrowing costs climbing to their highest level since last August. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.9% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 17. Purchase applications
Refis Take a Back Seat as Purchase Demand Rebounds Read More »
Odds are, anything you buy was transported using diesel fuel, the price of which has shot up after Russia banned exports of it, impacting farmers, trains, trucks… kind of nearly everything. Today is “Pie and Beer” Day in Utah, aka Pioneer Day, and having parades is costly. It was also celebrated last year, and the
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Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on the bond market and the Fed rate outlook. The nearness to long-term highs had traders feeling very reluctant to step in and “buy the dip” in bond prices. This is the kind of move you’d rather see play
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Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were ‘above average’ and both took rates in the wrong direction. In addition, the steady weakness throughout the month of July finally resulted in yesterday’s rates match the highest level in nearly a year. In other words,
Highest Rates in Over a Year, But There’s a Silver Lining Read More »
There are only twelve (12) legislative days left until the November election, and today on The Big Picture attorney Mitch Kider and I will discuss what that means for lenders as well as other regulatory topics. Rates aren’t doing much. Deals continue to happen as the big get bigger (the latest example being Union Home
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year highs. Inflation fears are back at the forefront. Even the ECB is flagging rate hike risks that could play
Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons Read More »
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was reasonable in light of fuel prices hitting the highest level since 2022 by some measures. That said, the intraday correlation between bonds and oil/gas/etc wasn’t overly compelling. We continue to view oil as a
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