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Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as the first task on the daily checklist. In so doing, we see a bit of outperformance on the part of bonds this morning. While there is solid directional correlation (i.e. yields and oil […]

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Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds spent last week bracing for the impact of higher energy prices. In the bond world, higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal.  Oil prices remain elevated, but fell more than 5% on Monday. The bond market responded with a drop in Treasury yields (which generally correlate

Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower There’s no sense in overcomplicating today’s trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part

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With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept the friendly trend intact with some help from Trump comments that suggested a limited timeline for the war. That said, the rally was more of

Existing-home sales rebounded modestly in February, recovering some ground after January’s sharp pullback, while improving affordability and slowly expanding inventory helped support buyer activity.Sales rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million .  “Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The group’s Housing Affordability Index

Mortgage application activity continued to move higher last week, though the pace slowed considerably as financial markets turned volatile and mortgage rates moved back up from their recent lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 6. This week it was purchase

March hasn’t been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today–the highest since September 4th, 2025.  While that’s certainly not the fastest jump we’ve seen, it’s the worst 3-day stretch since early April,

Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that’s not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position