Mortgage Rates

The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets rallied nearly as much just before the open when Trump said the hard part is essentially done on the Iran war (and that other […]

The bad news is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remains over 6.5% after being under 6% just a month ago. The good news is that rates recovered nicely over the weekend.  By Friday afternoon, the average rate was 6.64%–the highest since August 2025–adding to a trend of rapid upward movement over the course

There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of meaningful de-escalation in the Iran war. The most notable development has been the correction in Fed Funds Futures that began on Friday morning and extended modestly into this morning. Less objectively quantifiable but

Do you remember when everyone was talking about the lack of housing inventory as a problem for buyers? Those days are long gone: There are now nearly 50 percent more home sellers than buyers as mismatch widens to a record 630,000. (Of course this is depending on price point and location.) And what they’re selling

Some Resilience After AM Weakness 10yr yields are set to end the week at the highest levels since last July, but those were even higher highs earlier this morning. From roughly 9am-1130am ET, bonds recovered all of the day’s losses in a move that was led by adjustments to Fed rate hike expectations.  Yes, we can/should

Mortgage application activity declined for the second consecutive week as rising interest rates continued to weigh on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 20. Both major components moved lower. The Refinance Index fell 15% from the previous week, though it

There were mixed blessings in the mortgage rate world today. The bad news is that today’s rates are just a bit higher than yesterday’s, resulting in another 8 month high. The good news is that things were looking quite a bit worse earlier in the morning. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day

Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instead opted to stick with prevailing momentum (lower stocks, higher yields and oil prices). Part of the reason is that rather than a true ceasefire, the announcement merely delayed a major escalation from this weekend

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After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the broader market reaction to the Iran war which has caused significant and almost exclusive upward movement in interest rates for the entire month of March. Average 30yr fixed rates have