The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week’s econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow’s jobs report). This morning, however, the trend continues with stronger jobless claims and a big uptick in labor costs failing to inspire a reaction. But there has been movement. […]

Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today’s case, that correlation didn’t pan out. The first of today’s two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just

Credit is certainly a topic as of late, both its process and its cost, but I received this note from an industry vet in the South. “Rob, I’m tired of lenders having ‘a come apart’ over FICO’s costs. No one talks about the fact that FICO held its prices steady for over 20 years, and

After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. Today’s big ticket data includes ADP Employment and ISM Services. The former is already out (63k vs 50k, with a negative revision about the same size as the beat) and not

Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses The bond market was visibly pulled in two directions on Tuesday. This played out in phases, with AM weakness followed by a gradual recovery. But it can also be assumed to be playing out at any given moment as bonds listen to the voices arguing in their own

After spending the entirety of last week calmy holding the lowest levels in more than 3 years, mortgage rates jumped sharply higher yesterday. That said, everything’s relative. Even after that “sharp” increase, the average rate was still one of the lowest in years apart from last week. There was slightly more cause for concern this

At the L1 Summit, technology is obviously a key segment of many sessions. Tech is helping larger companies in their moves in controlling the borrower funnel. Artificial intelligence (AI) with its pros and cons but hoped-for benefits to productivity and therefore cost reduction, is a common conversation topic. Third party provider offerings are also theme.

Bonds sold off again overnight with 10yr yields now challenging the 4.10% technical level in early trading. MBS are down another 3/8ths, roughly. And there’s stronger correlation with higher oil prices and rising bond yields. So in light of our contrarian take yesterday, are we now forced to acquiesce to the “higher inflation/higher rates” narrative? 

Big Bad Day For Bonds. What’s Next? Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlookers are quickly attributing to geopolitics. Specifically, the thought is that higher oil prices imply higher inflation and, thus, higher rates. While some traders probably woke up and decided to sell bonds based on this