The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionally, it swings for the fences. Today’s release is a clear example with the monthly headline coming in at 1.5 vs 0.5 forecast. In annual terms, headline inflation is a […]

Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions Because CPI came out slightly higher today and because of its status as a bigger potential market mover, many rate watchers will assume that’s the reason 10yr yields closed at their highest level since last July. But bond yields were actually lower in the

When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender by March 27th. Rates moved more than 0.30% lower by mid April as peace prospect improved.  The third phase of rate movement began in late April and has

If you’re hoping that the summer is going to bring a trend of purchase market prosperity, I hope you’re right but there are indications otherwise. Rocket Companies’ CEO reported its highest profit in four years, but CEO Varun Krishna told investors that the company’s real-time data shows the spring homebuying season is not delivering the

This morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ways after the data, but after 20 minutes, yields were actually LOWER by a hair. What gives? We know traders are trading the

Over Before it Began Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields actually didn’t move much during the domestic session. In fact, they didn’t move during the overnight session either. Because the day’s market-moving news happened on Sunday before trading began, it was instantly priced in at the open,

Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from the previous week in terms of the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate.  The new week is starting out in opposite fashion with rates moving up

Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran’s counterproposal to end the war, calling it “totally unacceptable.” In response, Iran’s foreign minister said it will never bow to foreign pressure. Adding fuel to the fire, Netanyahu said the war was not over and there was “more

Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and associated oil price volatility.

It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher.  Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery