evan@evanhitch.com

There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of meaningful de-escalation in the Iran war. The most notable development has been the correction in Fed Funds Futures that began on Friday morning and extended modestly into this morning. Less objectively quantifiable but […]

Some Resilience After AM Weakness 10yr yields are set to end the week at the highest levels since last July, but those were even higher highs earlier this morning. From roughly 9am-1130am ET, bonds recovered all of the day’s losses in a move that was led by adjustments to Fed rate hike expectations.  Yes, we can/should

There were mixed blessings in the mortgage rate world today. The bad news is that today’s rates are just a bit higher than yesterday’s, resulting in another 8 month high. The good news is that things were looking quite a bit worse earlier in the morning. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day

Mortgage application activity declined for the second consecutive week as rising interest rates continued to weigh on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 20. Both major components moved lower. The Refinance Index fell 15% from the previous week, though it

Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Four Methods to Hedge Non-QM & Maximize Profits: In today’s growing non-QM market, selling best efforts is leaving value on the table. Accumulating bulk and improving execution is possible, but it involves taking price risk on the non-QM loans, and this requires hedging. A new technical brief

Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instead opted to stick with prevailing momentum (lower stocks, higher yields and oil prices). Part of the reason is that rather than a true ceasefire, the announcement merely delayed a major escalation from this weekend

That Escalated Quickly It would be easy to check in on the bond market at some point on Thursday afternoon and conclude there’d been precipitous escalation in the Iran war or some other big new development putting pressure on bonds (10yr yields up almost 10bps to 4.42+ and MBS down more than 5/8ths). But today’s

After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the broader market reaction to the Iran war which has caused significant and almost exclusive upward movement in interest rates for the entire month of March. Average 30yr fixed rates have

What’s new out there? Well, United Airlines is talking about having couches in the air. There’s always something new in compliance, and there are firms that specialize in it including Feewise, Truework, Asurity, RiskExec, TENA, ACES Quality Management, Firstline Compliance, and LicensingStore.com listed in the Marketplace. There’s always something new impacting mortgage rates. “Rob, I

Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently, Iran war de-escalation sentiment is increasingly drying up, thus causing higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and lower stock prices. Additionally, the closer we get to