This year, “Bring a Kid to Work Day” is April 23. The name seems to have shifted: I remember “Bring Your Child to Work Day.” The population of the United States also shifts, something that lenders and originators are very aware of in the primary markets, and should be aware of in the secondary markets. […]
Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly shrug off Friday’s stronger jobs report–a fact that we’d attribute mainly to the focus on the unemployment rate over the balmy payroll count. Additionally, war-related developments remain near the top of
Roughly Unchanged as Holiday Effect Persists Read More »
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling The typical early close for the bond market is 2pm ET. This is usually reserved for a holiday-adjacent day such as Christmas Eve or the day after Thanksgiving. Good Friday is unique. On years where it DOES NOT coincide with a jobs report, it’s fully closed. Otherwise, it’s open
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling Read More »
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Today’s jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That’s doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm ET) for Good Friday. Payrolls were hot at 178k vs -133k previously. The big swing is the first hint that payrolls should be taken with a grain
Logically Weaker After Solid Jobs Report, But It’s a Ghost Town Read More »
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night’s Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes Read More »
On any given Thursday, there’s a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that’s fine, but it’s critical to understand the methodology. Whether it’s MBA (reported yesterday) or
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Lower This Week Read More »
“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but
Things don’t always happen like you’d expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night’s Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were “nearly complete.” Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised
Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields Read More »
Surprisingly Light Volatility Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we
Surprisingly Light Volatility Read More »