evan@evanhitch.com

The gap between where rates are and where households “need them to be” is suppressing labor mobility, distorting retirement decisions, and reshaping expectations about generational wealth building: 56 percent of working Americans have either turned down a job requiring relocation or say they would, and 20 percent have already turned down a job, promotion, or […]

On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinction versus previous rumors/reports is that the issue of nuclear material is being left as “TBD.” Subsequent headlines mentioned several military strikes, but the market didn’t

Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemingly insignificant war-related headlines. Today it was the much-debated geographical location of Pakistan’s lead negotiator, Asim Munir, that set the tone. Bonds rallied on early accounts that he was en route to Tehran and pulled back when other

Mortgage lenders rely on the bond market to generate mortgage rates. In addition to being fully closed on Monday for Memorial Day, bonds also close 3 hours earlier than normal on the preceding Friday (i.e. today). The abbreviated trading session was fairly uneventful for rates despite some back-and-forth volatility in response to diplomacy headlines surrounding

Residential construction activity was mixed again in April, as building permits rebounded while housing starts pulled back modestly from March’s stronger pace. The latest Census Bureau data continues to reflect a construction sector navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures. Privately owned housing starts fell 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million ,

Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rising rates weighed on homebuyer demand, while refinance activity remained largely flat. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.3% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 15. The decline was driven primarily by softer purchase activity. The seasonally adjusted

Builder confidence improved modestly in May, though sentiment remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and broader economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased three points to 37 . While the gain marks a slight rebound from April’s decline,

Wanna know the new buzz acronym? Residential Transition Loans (RTL): financing for properties in transition, including fix-and-flip, bridge, and rehab deals. Catch the wave… people always need to borrow money! Now, if only income guidelines by the Agencies matched how incomes have changed. Change is constant: “Rob, if you think inflation is bad, home insurance

Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan’s army chief (a central figure in mediating US/Iran peace talks) is en route to Tehran. Trading ends at 2pm today instead of 5pm, as is usually the case for a Friday before

Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker fashion after overnight headlines suggested that the disposition of Iran’s nuclear material remains a sticking point. Bonds were flat at weaker levels all morning. Then, just after 1pm, a different headline suggested a “draft agreement” was expected to be